Aidan Mayo v Petr Nesterov
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanA. Mayo is 7-3 over the last ten and 29-21 on hard this season. P. Nesterov is 5-5 over the last ten and 19-8 on hard this season. A. Mayo has played 5 matches in seven days.
The pick is A. Mayo to win 2-0. We make it a 48% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.10 or bigger. At 2.00 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| A. Mayo | P. Nesterov | |
|---|---|---|
| 341 | Ranking | 298 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 | 5-5 |
| WWLWW | Last 5 | LLWWW |
| +1.8 | V the odds | -1.9 |
| 33-23 | Season | 53-24 |
| 29-21 | Hard 2026 | 19-8 |
| 5 | Last 7 days | 0 |
| 1d | Days rest | 23d |
| 2 | Wins here | 0 |
| Clear | Fitness | 23d out |
| Head to head First meeting |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
A. Mayo — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-11-02 | Charlottesville | Hard | K. Miyoshi | 1.51 | 63% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 MayoMiyoshiPoints won62%38%Serve points won80%52%Return points won48%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 03 of 6Aces53Double faults23 | |||||||
| 2026-11-01 | Charlottesville | Hard | D. Chan | 1.38 | 69% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MayoChanPoints won53%47%Serve points won68%61%Return points won39%32%Games held9 of 107 of 10Break points saved0 of 12 of 5Aces42Double faults32 | |||||||
| 2026-10-31 | Sioux Falls | Hard (Indoor) | D. Dietrich | 3.29 | 70% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 2-6 MayoDietrichPoints won43%57%Serve points won57%73%Return points won27%43%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces45Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-10-30 | Sioux Falls | Hard (Indoor) | M. Rottgering | 2.24 | 57% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 6-4 MayoRottgeringPoints won55%45%Serve points won70%65%Return points won35%30%Games held10 of 107 of 9Break points saved9 of 91 of 3Aces101Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-28 | Sioux Falls | Hard (Indoor) | M. Kasnikowski | 2.43 | 60% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-7 7-5 MayoKasnikowskiPoints won53%47%Serve points won68%62%Return points won38%32%Games held14 of 1611 of 16Break points saved1 of 32 of 7Aces94Double faults51 | |||||||
| 2026-10-26 | Sioux Falls | Hard (Indoor) | H. Barton | 1.65 | 58% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 MayoBartonPoints won58%42%Serve points won75%57%Return points won43%25%Games held9 of 95 of 8Break points saved5 of 511 of 14Aces26Double faults25 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Fort Worth (Usa) | Hard | S. Jong | 1.67 | 56% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-0 6-7 MayoJongPoints won52%48%Serve points won70%66%Return points won34%30%Games held14 of 1511 of 15Break points saved5 of 64 of 8Aces610Double faults78 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Fort Worth (Usa) | Hard | K. Bigun | 1.37 | 70% | WON | |
Games in each set1-6 6-0 7-5 MayoBigunPoints won54%46%Serve points won62%54%Return points won46%38%Games held10 of 129 of 13Break points saved12 of 1412 of 16Aces65Double faults65 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Fort Worth (Usa) | Hard | C. Smith | 2.12 | 55% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 2-6 7-6 MayoSmithPoints won50%50%Serve points won59%60%Return points won40%41%Games held11 of 1512 of 15Break points saved10 of 1412 of 15Aces54Double faults71 | |||||||
| 2026-10-02 | Columbus | Hard (Indoor) | A. Shelbayh | 2.09 | 54% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 5-7 MayoShelbayhPoints won47%53%Serve points won63%67%Return points won33%37%Games held10 of 1211 of 12Break points saved1 of 31 of 2Aces153Double faults52 | |||||||
P. Nesterov — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Olbia | Hard | C. Langmo | 1.44 | 67% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 1-6 NesterovLangmoPoints won41%59%Serve points won49%72%Return points won28%51%Games held3 of 87 of 7Break points saved7 of 121 of 1Aces47Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-08 | Villena | Clay | P. Llamas Ruiz | 3.32 | 71% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 6-7 3-6 NesterovRuizPoints won49%51%Serve points won60%62%Return points won38%40%Games held12 of 1611 of 14Break points saved4 of 88 of 11Aces74Double faults22 | |||||||
| 2026-10-06 | Villena | Clay | C. Hernandez | 1.20 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 7-6 NesterovHernandezPoints won53%47%Serve points won67%57%Return points won43%33%Games held8 of 107 of 11Break points saved2 of 44 of 8Aces81Double faults23 | |||||||
| 2026-10-05 | Villena | Clay | H. Barton | 2.38 | 60% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-4 6-1 NesterovBartonPoints won55%45%Serve points won67%55%Return points won45%33%Games held11 of 139 of 13Break points saved7 of 99 of 13Aces28Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-04 | Villena | Clay | C. Chen | 1.07 | 89% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 6-2 NesterovChenPoints won52%48%Serve points won64%64%Return points won36%36%Games held11 of 139 of 13Break points saved11 of 131 of 5Aces143Double faults34 | |||||||
| 2026-09-29 | Porto | Clay | G. Marques | 1.46 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set5-7 6-1 4-6 NesterovMarquesPoints won50%50%Serve points won65%64%Return points won36%35%Games held11 of 1411 of 15Break points saved3 of 63 of 7Aces67Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-09-28 | Porto | Clay | M. Topo | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-2 NesterovTopoPoints won59%41%Serve points won80%55%Return points won45%20%Games held9 of 96 of 9Break points saved0 of 06 of 9Aces61Double faults15 | |||||||
| 2026-09-27 | Porto | Clay | G. Tabacco | — | — | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 4-6 6-3 NesterovTabaccoPoints won51%49%Serve points won56%54%Return points won46%44%Games held10 of 149 of 15Break points saved9 of 139 of 15Aces44Double faults63 | |||||||
| 2026-09-21 | Plovdiv 4 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | C. Taberner | 2.50 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set4-6 6-1 0-6 NesterovTabernerPoints won48%52%Serve points won58%63%Return points won37%42%Games held7 of 128 of 11Break points saved6 of 110 of 3Aces22Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-09-01 | Plovdiv 3 (Bulgaria) - Qualification | Clay | Y. Milev | 1.23 | 78% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 6-3 4-6 NesterovMilevPoints won51%49%Serve points won65%63%Return points won37%35%Games held13 of 1612 of 15Break points saved0 of 33 of 6Aces31Double faults34 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Aidan Mayo or Petr Nesterov?
Aidan Mayo is favourite at 1.33, which is a 72% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Aidan Mayo vs Petr Nesterov?
Aidan Mayo is 1.33 and Petr Nesterov is 3.36, the prices we recorded for the Charlottesville match.
Who will win Aidan Mayo vs Petr Nesterov?
Our model makes it Aidan Mayo to win 2-0 at 2.00 (Lean confidence).