Cameron Norrie v Daniil Medvedev
Match preview, prediction and odds
Our pick
LeanLOSTD. Medvedev is 9-1 over the last ten and 41-10 on hard this season. C. Norrie is 4-6 over the last ten and 19-16 on hard this season. D. Medvedev has played 4 matches in seven days. The head to head is C. Norrie 1-5.
The pick is D. Medvedev to win 2-0. We make it a 55% chance, so it is only worth backing at 1.82 or bigger. At 1.57 that is not there yet - leave it, or wait for the price to drift in-play (an early break against usually does it).
An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.
Key numbers
| C. Norrie | D. Medvedev | |
|---|---|---|
| 40 | Ranking | 5 |
| 4-6 | Last 10 | 9-1 |
| WLLLL | Last 5 | WWWWW |
| -0.6 | V the odds | +1.4 |
| 24-25 | Season | 50-17 |
| 19-16 | Hard 2026 | 41-10 |
| 1 | Last 7 days | 4 |
| 2d | Days rest | 2d |
| 1 | Wins here | 1 |
| Clear | Fitness | Clear |
| Head to head 1-5 |
V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.
The market
Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.
Head to head
| Date | Event | Match | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | C. NorrievD. Medvedev | 6-4 3-6 6-7 |
| 2025-09-26 | Beijing | D. MedvedevvC. Norrie | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-05-27 | French Open | D. MedvedevvC. Norrie | 5-7 3-6 6-4 6-1 5-7 |
| 2025-05-09 | Rome | C. NorrievD. Medvedev | 4-6 2-6 |
| 2024-03-25 | ATP Miami | C. NorrievD. Medvedev | 5-7 1-6 |
| 2022-08-07 | Los Cabos | D. MedvedevvC. Norrie | 7-5 |
| 2019-10-08 | Shanghai | D. MedvedevvC. Norrie | 6-3 6-1 |
This season & this event
Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.
The players
Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.
C. Norrie — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Medvedev | 4.85 | 80% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-4 3-6 6-7 NorrieMedvedevPoints won48%52%Serve points won61%65%Return points won35%39%Games held12 of 1513 of 16Break points saved3 of 68 of 11Aces112Double faults24 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | F. Cerundolo | 2.77 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-1 NorrieCerundoloPoints won55%45%Serve points won64%52%Return points won48%36%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved1 of 12 of 6Aces05Double faults04 | |||||||
| 2026-10-19 | Lyon (France) - Qualification | Hard (Indoor) | B. Bonzi | 1.85 | 53% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 NorrieBonziPoints won44%56%Serve points won58%69%Return points won31%42%Games held10 of 1312 of 14Break points saved3 of 63 of 5Aces714Double faults20 | |||||||
| 2026-10-08 | Shanghai | Hard | D. Svrcina | 1.57 | 62% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 6-3 4-6 NorrieSvrcinaPoints won49%51%Serve points won56%57%Return points won43%44%Games held9 of 1410 of 14Break points saved4 of 97 of 11Aces22Double faults16 | |||||||
| 2026-09-30 | Beijing | Hard | A. Zverev | 6.87 | 86% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-7 4-6 NorrieZverevPoints won44%56%Serve points won64%76%Return points won24%36%Games held10 of 1111 of 11Break points saved1 of 23 of 3Aces315Double faults00 | |||||||
| 2026-08-30 | US Open | Hard | L. van Assche | 1.47 | 66% | LOST | |
Games in each set7-6 2-6 2-6 3-6 NorrieAsschePoints won42%58%Serve points won53%69%Return points won31%47%Games held10 of 1816 of 19Break points saved3 of 111 of 4Aces68Double faults35 | |||||||
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati | Hard | A. Zverev | 4.06 | 76% | LOST | |
Games in each set6-3 3-6 3-6 NorrieZverevPoints won46%54%Serve points won59%72%Return points won28%41%Games held11 of 1412 of 13Break points saved13 of 162 of 3Aces316Double faults65 | |||||||
| 2026-08-13 | Cincinnati | Hard | D. Prizmic | 1.49 | 65% | WON | |
Games in each set3-6 6-1 6-4 NorriePrizmicPoints won53%47%Serve points won69%68%Return points won32%31%Games held12 of 1310 of 13Break points saved4 of 51 of 4Aces311Double faults34 | |||||||
| 2026-08-09 | Montreal | Hard | A. Fils | 3.02 | 68% | LOST | |
Games in each set2-6 6-7 NorrieFilsPoints won45%55%Serve points won62%72%Return points won28%38%Games held8 of 1010 of 10Break points saved6 of 84 of 4Aces45Double faults33 | |||||||
| 2026-08-06 | Montreal | Hard | A. De Minaur | 2.74 | 64% | WON | |
Games in each set5-7 7-6 6-1 NorrieMinaurPoints won52%48%Serve points won57%53%Return points won47%43%Games held10 of 159 of 16Break points saved8 of 133 of 10Aces73Double faults35 | |||||||
D. Medvedev — last 10
With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.
| Date | Event | Surface | Opponent | Score | Their price | Market | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-30 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | A. Mannarino | 1.25 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-3 MedvedevMannarinoPoints won57%43%Serve points won69%53%Return points won47%31%Games held8 of 85 of 9Break points saved0 of 07 of 11Aces52Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-29 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | C. Norrie | 1.22 | 80% | WON | |
Games in each set4-6 6-3 7-6 MedvedevNorriePoints won52%48%Serve points won65%61%Return points won39%35%Games held13 of 1612 of 15Break points saved8 of 113 of 6Aces121Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-27 | Vienna | Hard (Indoor) | D. Merida Aguilar | 1.25 | 78% | WON | |
Games in each set7-6 6-1 MedvedevAguilarPoints won58%42%Serve points won65%52%Return points won48%35%Games held8 of 105 of 9Break points saved4 of 61 of 5Aces50Double faults21 | |||||||
| 2026-10-25 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | N. Basilashvili | 1.24 | 79% | WON | |
Games in each set6-7 6-1 6-3 MedvedevBasilashviliPoints won55%45%Serve points won76%64%Return points won36%24%Games held14 of 1410 of 14Break points saved2 of 26 of 10Aces223Double faults43 | |||||||
| 2026-10-24 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | A. Bublik | RET | 1.50 | 65% | WON |
Games in each set6-3 MedvedevBublikPoints won61%39%Serve points won87%67%Return points won33%13%Games held5 of 53 of 4Break points saved0 of 01 of 2Aces93Double faults10 | |||||||
| 2026-10-23 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | T. Atmane | 1.16 | 84% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 6-4 MedvedevAtmanePoints won58%42%Serve points won82%60%Return points won40%18%Games held10 of 108 of 10Break points saved0 of 06 of 8Aces54Double faults31 | |||||||
| 2026-10-21 | Almaty | Hard (Indoor) | S. Shimabukuro | 1.06 | 91% | WON | |
Games in each set6-2 6-1 MedvedevShimabukuroPoints won66%34%Serve points won79%46%Return points won54%21%Games held7 of 73 of 8Break points saved3 of 35 of 10Aces71Double faults14 | |||||||
| 2026-10-17 | Shanghai | Hard | R. Jodar | 1.55 | 63% | LOST | |
Games in each set3-6 4-6 MedvedevJodarPoints won46%54%Serve points won54%60%Return points won40%46%Games held5 of 98 of 10Break points saved3 of 74 of 6Aces36Double faults42 | |||||||
| 2026-10-16 | Shanghai | Hard | T. Paul | 1.47 | 66% | WON | |
Games in each set6-3 1-6 6-3 MedvedevPaulPoints won52%48%Serve points won60%57%Return points won43%40%Games held9 of 129 of 13Break points saved11 of 148 of 12Aces167Double faults81 | |||||||
| 2026-10-14 | Shanghai | Hard | S. Tsitsipas | 1.45 | 67% | WON | |
Games in each set6-4 7-5 MedvedevTsitsipasPoints won54%46%Serve points won73%63%Return points won37%27%Games held11 of 119 of 11Break points saved0 of 05 of 7Aces84Double faults11 | |||||||
Common questions
Who is favourite, Cameron Norrie or Daniil Medvedev?
Daniil Medvedev is favourite at 1.22, which is a 80% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.
What are the odds for Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev?
Cameron Norrie is 4.85 and Daniil Medvedev is 1.22, the prices we recorded for the Vienna match.
What is the head-to-head between Cameron Norrie and Daniil Medvedev?
They have met 7 times and Daniil Medvedev leads 6-1.
Who will win Cameron Norrie vs Daniil Medvedev?
Our model makes it Daniil Medvedev to win 2-0 at 1.57 (Lean confidence).