ATPHard (Indoor)Basel2026-10-29 10:00

Holger Rune v Valentin Vacherot

Match preview, prediction and odds

Our pick

LeanWON

V. Vacherot to win2.30

Worth backing at 2.18 or bigger · our chance 46% · market 58/42, us 54/46

V. Vacherot is 6-4 over the last ten and 16-15 on hard this season. H. Rune is 4-2 over the last ten and 2-2 on hard this season. The head to head is H. Rune 0-1.

The pick is V. Vacherot to win. We make it a 46% chance, so it is only worth backing at 2.18 or bigger.

An opinion from the numbers, not a guarantee. 19+, bet responsibly.

Key numbers

H. Rune		V. Vacherot
195	Ranking	32
4-2	Last 10	6-4
WWLLW	Last 5	WWLLW
+0.6	V the odds	+1.4
4-2	Season	26-18
2-2	Hard 2026	16-15
2	Last 7 days	3
1d	Days rest	0d
2	Wins here	2
Clear	Fitness	Clear
	Head to head 0-1

V the odds: wins above (or below) what the prices expected over the last 10 - form with the strength of the opposition built in.

The market

H. RuneFAV1.6858%

V. Vacherot2.3042%

Market says58% Rune

Percentages are the implied chance of winning with the bookmaker's margin removed.

Recent form

H. RuneLWWLL

V. VacherotWWWLL

Last five completed matches, most recent first.

Head to head

H. Rune0

V. Vacherot1

Head to head1 meeting

Date	Event	Match	Score
2025-10-09	Shanghai	H. RunevV. Vacherot	6-2 6-7 4-6

This season & this event

H. Rune

V. Vacherot

4-3

2-3

Reached R32

Lost SF to G. Mpetshi Perricard

2026 record

2026 on hard

Here in 2025

Here in 2024

27-18

17-15

Lost R32 to T. Fritz

Did not play

Ranking points fall off a year after they are earned, so a player who went deep here last year must match it or drop in the rankings. That shapes effort in a way the price does not always show.

The players

Holger Rune

Denmark

Valentin Vacherot

Monaco

195

Denmark

2–1

0–1

—

Ranking

Age

Country

2026 W/L

Titles

Hard

Clay

Grass

Monaco

24–17

14–13

6–4

—

Ranking, record and surface splits are for the most recent season on file. Height, weight and handedness are not published by our data provider.

H. Rune — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	V. Vacherot	1.68	58%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 6-3 3-6 RuneVacherotPoints won49%51%Serve points won65%67%Return points won33%35%Games held11 of 1313 of 14Break points saved2 of 49 of 10Aces620Double faults25
2026-10-28	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	H. Hurkacz	2.52	61%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 7-6 RuneHurkaczPoints won50%50%Serve points won72%72%Return points won28%28%Games held14 of 1514 of 15Break points saved0 of 14 of 5Aces518Double faults42
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	Q. Halys	1.94	50%	WON
Games in each set6-4 6-7 7-6 RuneHalysPoints won48%52%Serve points won68%73%Return points won27%32%Games held17 of 1716 of 17Break points saved5 of 52 of 3Aces1332Double faults35
2026-10-07	Shanghai	Hard	D. Altmaier	1.47	66%	LOST
Games in each set6-1 6-7 4-6 RuneAltmaierPoints won53%47%Serve points won74%69%Return points won31%26%Games held14 of 1512 of 14Break points saved0 of 13 of 5Aces58Double faults33
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	K. Jacquet	1.58	62%	LOST
Games in each set3-6 1-6 RuneJacquetPoints won38%62%Serve points won52%75%Return points won25%48%Games held4 of 88 of 8Break points saved2 of 60 of 0Aces33Double faults03
2026-09-19	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	G. Dimitrov	2.05	55%	WON
Games in each set3-6 6-3 7-6 RuneDimitrovPoints won51%49%Serve points won70%64%Return points won36%30%Games held12 of 1512 of 15Break points saved1 of 49 of 12Aces511Double faults23
2026-09-18	ATP Davis Cup - World Group I	- Preliminary	I. Radulov	1.20	79%	WON
Games in each set6-3 6-3 RuneRadulovPoints won57%43%Serve points won74%53%Return points won47%26%Games held8 of 95 of 9Break points saved0 of 16 of 10Aces51Double faults33

V. Vacherot — last 10

With the pre-match price we recorded at the time.

Date	Event	Surface	Opponent	Their price	Market	Result
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	R. Jodar	3.44	72%	WON
Games in each set7-6 2-6 7-6 VacherotJodarPoints won48%52%Serve points won65%70%Return points won30%35%Games held13 of 1615 of 16Break points saved8 of 112 of 3Aces1310Double faults63
2026-10-29	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	H. Rune	2.30	58%	WON
Games in each set6-3 3-6 6-3 VacherotRunePoints won51%49%Serve points won67%65%Return points won35%33%Games held13 of 1411 of 13Break points saved9 of 102 of 4Aces206Double faults52
2026-10-27	Basel	Hard (Indoor)	M. Navone	1.53	64%	WON
Games in each set6-3 7-6 VacherotNavonePoints won53%47%Serve points won70%62%Return points won38%30%Games held10 of 118 of 10Break points saved6 of 711 of 13Aces121Double faults43
2026-10-22	Lyon (France) - Qualification	Hard (Indoor)	L. van Assche	1.77	55%	LOST
Games in each set6-2 4-6 4-6 VacherotAsschePoints won50%50%Serve points won64%65%Return points won35%36%Games held11 of 1411 of 14Break points saved4 of 71 of 4Aces108Double faults25
2026-10-12	Shanghai	Hard	T. Paul	2.47	61%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotPaulPoints won44%56%Serve points won53%65%Return points won35%47%Games held5 of 98 of 9Break points saved2 of 66 of 7Aces94Double faults10
2026-10-10	Shanghai	Hard	S. Baez	1.34	73%	WON
Games in each set6-4 7-6 VacherotBaezPoints won55%45%Serve points won77%66%Return points won34%23%Games held10 of 119 of 11Break points saved2 of 31 of 3Aces155Double faults10
2026-10-05	Tokyo	Hard	J. Lehecka	2.59	62%	LOST
Games in each set4-6 2-6 VacherotLeheckaPoints won39%61%Serve points won60%90%Return points won10%40%Games held6 of 99 of 9Break points saved3 of 60 of 0Aces410Double faults30
2026-10-04	Tokyo	Hard	A. Fils	4.32	78%	WON
Games in each set7-5 4-6 6-4 VacherotFilsPoints won51%49%Serve points won62%59%Return points won41%38%Games held13 of 1612 of 16Break points saved5 of 85 of 9Aces146Double faults48
2026-10-02	Tokyo	Hard	S. Tsitsipas	2.37	59%	WON
Games in each set4-6 7-6 6-4 VacherotTsitsipasPoints won49%51%Serve points won70%70%Return points won30%30%Games held14 of 1614 of 16Break points saved6 of 83 of 5Aces79Double faults10
2026-09-30	Tokyo	Hard	A. Blockx	2.17	55%	WON
Games in each set7-6 7-6 VacherotBlockxPoints won54%46%Serve points won71%62%Return points won38%29%Games held10 of 1210 of 12Break points saved7 of 96 of 8Aces72Double faults52

Common questions

Who is favourite, Holger Rune or Valentin Vacherot?

Holger Rune is favourite at 1.68, which is a 58% chance once the bookmaker's margin is removed.

What are the odds for Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot?

Holger Rune is 1.68 and Valentin Vacherot is 2.30, the prices we recorded for the Basel match.

What is the head-to-head between Holger Rune and Valentin Vacherot?

They have met 1 time and Valentin Vacherot leads 1-0.

Who will win Holger Rune vs Valentin Vacherot?

Our model makes it Valentin Vacherot to win at 2.30 (Lean confidence).

Also at this event

Vacherot v Jodar Michelsen v Fils Shelton v Kym Altmaier v Lehecka Fritz v Shapovalov Djokovic v Struff